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Apply to Open Angel Forum Philly III

 
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The next Open Angel Forum in Philadelphia will be the evening of March 22 at Morgan Lewis. If you are involved in a startup that is looking for seed funding, please apply (there is no charge to apply or attend if selected): http://ye.gg/oaf

For anyone not familiar with Open Angel Forum, the idea is to get the best regional angels in a room and put some great startups in front of them. Antonio Tedesco and I started this Philly (loosely defined) chapter, and this will be our third event.

We expect a lot of the same investors to show again. If you are an angel investor in the mid-atlantic region and want to come, please let us know. We're also looking for sponsors.

My investment decision starts at your first email

 
I few weeks ago someone asked me how early does a decision start to form about whether I would make an angel investment or not. Thinking back and looking at prior nos and yeses I have to say a lot happens when reading that very first email.

Of course there are a ton of nos and hardly any yeses, so it is a different kind of decision than many. Nevertheless, at least for me, it isn't just that I'm looking for ways to say no. If that were the case you should shoot for being as short and vague as possible to get the next meeting.

What's your startup's reserve price?

 
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Here's some acquisition and financing advice: know your reserve price. That's the minimum price (easiest to think about cash in your bank account at close after taxes) that you'd be willing to receive in exchange for your company. Corollary: if it isn't cash, then it needs to be heavily discounted--to zero in many cases.

It's a complicated question, which is why I strongly encourage you to think about it ahead of time, and ideally talk it through with some people who've been through acquisitions and are "richer" than you. In the acquire-hire age, your reserve price can be tested a lot and quickly, especially at the early stages. If you are caught off guard, you can get sucked in quickly to something you may regret later.

Additionally, I think you should know your reserve price before seeking investment of any kind. Investors are generally looking for 10x+ returns. Quite frankly, if you have a valuation/reserve-price combination that doesn't yield such, you shouldn't be taking investment.

And there's nothing wrong with that! In fact, I've argued that no or minimal investment may maximize your financial outcome in some cases, and is at least worth considering.
 
Talking about reserve prices seems to get into fuzzy math really quickly. Would I take $2M but not $1M or $15M and not $10M? But you should really take it seriously because these differences do matter, especially at the lower end of the scale.

Yes, everything feels different when you have an offer in front of you. And that's the point of thinking about it ahead of time. It's hard when you have no real savings in your bank account to turn down $1M. But that can be the right decision, especially if you have any kind of traction.

Fundable vision

 
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When I get an angel pitch, here's my initial funnel:

  1. Is this person a crackpot?
  2. Is this person a wannabe?
  3. Is this vision fundable?
  4. Is this vision fundable by me?
  5. Is this vision plausible?
  6. Is this vision probable?
  7. Are these people capable of executing this vision?
I've been getting a lot of angel pitches lately that I've been quickly dismissing on #3: is this vision fundable? Frankly, the dismissals are pretty much from a lack of communicating any long-term vision. Here's my #3 sub-funnel:
  A.  Is this a whim project?
  B.  Is this a side project?
  C.  Is this (for lack of a better phrase) a lifestyle business?
  D.  How does this get to 1Min revenue?
  E.  How does this get to 10M in revenue?
  F.  Are they thinking big enough?

Product demos are key to a good pitch, but in and of themselves they are static, and really don't get anywhere in this sub-funnel. To do that, you need to tell a compelling story about how you're going to be part of a big market. 

Of course I may think you're wrong on market or a variety of other things, but communicating a long-term vision is a necessary condition to starting a real funding conversation.

I realize this is a very difficult request. It's easier to try to find a niche within a niche in the app world. And that may make a great business for you. But it isn't a fundable vision.

    What story are you trying to tell to potential investors?

     
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    Lately I've found myself giving a lot of pitch deck advice for seed rounds. Usually I point people this post and tell them to a) stick to six slides with mostly images/graphs; b) drop any financial projections; and c) drop any executive summary or even longer stuff.

    Then last week I read a @bryce post entitled You Can Never Size a Market in Excel. I agree with his specific point about market sizing, but I think it can be usefully generalized as well. The following is the end of the post, which frames that generalization.

    An investor's instinct around something as fundamental as whether your business can reach the scale needed for venture capital returns is one that won't be found scouring the latest market forecasts from Forester or Goldman Sachs. It won't be found in endless meetings and it won't be found in detailed financial forecasts or market sizing exercises.

    It will be found in the connection an investor makes to you, your product and your vision. Either they will believe it or they won't. If they do, they'll want to invest. If they don't, they'll simply keep wrestling with the question of "how big can this get" in an unresolvable circle of swirling doubt. All of the Excel wizardry in the world won't resolve it.


    Your story either clicks with an investor or doesn't, and in my (albeit limited) experience that clicking either happens really fast or it will take too long to matter.

    This is why that first impression, including your email, intro path and pitch deck is so important. It's your chance to make that click happen, or blow it. It's hard to recover from the wrong framing.

    So with that in mind, I'm changing my pitch deck advice for seed rounds to be a bit higher level. Yes, you should stick to six slides blah blah blah, but you should be thinking more about what story you are telling to potential investors. And if you're really good, what story you are telling to a particular investor.

    For me at least, I think you want to nail four things in your story:

    1. What will it take to get this business to 1-3M revenue? This part of the story shows you've thought about how this could be possible, how many customers you'd need, how much they might pay/convert/draw in/whatever, etc. None of it needs to be correct, but it needs to be plausible. If you already have some traction, perfect -- use that as a lead-in.

    2. What are the possible medium and longer-term exit opportunities?  This part of the story shows you understand your space, how you align strategically with it, and how big you're thinking. Again, be plausible. Anything else is a red flag.

    3. What about your team says you can execute on this? This part of the story shows you personally, and I'd get really personal.

    4. Why are you raising money? Every story needs an ending, and this is usually it. We're trying to hit this milestone by doing a, b and c. That milestone is important because of x, y and z.

    Entrepreneurs like to include all sorts of other stuff in their presentations. I think anything that isn't on story is irrelevant. Your goal is to make that story compelling so it clicks with as many people as possible.

    Of course there are many other ways to tell the story. You could take the where we've been, where we are and where we're going approach. You could concentrate on what you think is your most compelling piece of data/traction and tell the story behind that. There are actually a bunch of options.

    The point though is pick the one that you think has the highest probability of clicking. If it clicks, that doesn't mean someone will invest quickly or at all, but it is usually a necessary condition to investing. A corrolary to that is if you don't think you clicked, then you should probably move on. 

    Generally, but not always, you can feel if someone is excited or not.  Body language helps a lot here, which is why it is a good idea to try to meet in person or at least push for Skype video. 

    I hope it goes without saying that when you have that meeting you should be telling that story. I wouldn't walk through the presentation at all unless someone asks. Instead, just start story telling.

    Wikipedia: A logical operator that returns a true value only if both operands are true.

    Apply to Open Angel Forum Philly II

     
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    Antonio Tedesco and I held the first Open Angel Forum Philly in March. We're calling it a success as investors want to come back and companies were offered funding

    That's why we are proud to announce that we're making it a regular event and OAF Philly II will be held on the evening of Sep. 20th (again at Morgan Lewis).

    If you are involved in a startup that is looking for seed funding, please apply (there is no charge to apply or attend if selected): http://ye.gg/oaf

    For those of you not familiar with Open Angel Forum, the idea is to get the best regional angel investors in a room and put 5-7 great startups in front of them. We hope it is a funding powder-keg.

    We should have an awesome group of investors attending, just like last time. If you are an angel investor in the mid-atlantic region and want to come, please let us know.

    We're also looking for a few sponsors.

    Here is what we're looking for with regards to startups:
    • US companies. You do not need to be associated with Philly. In fact, last time we had companies from Austin, NYC, Minneapolis and Chicago, in addition to Philly.
    • Working demo, preferably already launched with some engaged users. The event format is a five min demo followed by a five min Q/A followed by networking. It's not a traditional pitch event with slides, so a working demo is essential.
    • Products matching our investor preferences. Our goal is to get you funded, and to do that you can't look too different than things our angel investors generally invest in. This generally means software of some form.
    • Terms matching our investor preferences. Same as above, our angels are looking for good deals. This generally means reasonable valuations and seed rounds (essentially first money in). 
    Here is the process:
    • We're accepting applications for OAF Philly II through Fri August 26, 2011.
    • Antonio and I will then go through and select the companies that fit the above criteria.
    • We will then try to hold Skype demo sessions with all those companies. Last time that was about 25 startups. We may involve some other angels in this process.
    • We will then extend invitations until the six slots are filled.  We're aiming to do that by Sep 12th.
    Feel free to ask questions in the comments, and I'll do my best to answer.

    And apply already! http://ye.gg/oaf

    Missed opportunities

     
    I've been at the right place at the right time with the right idea, but for one reason or another didn't act on it or execute. Here are a few of those missed opportunities in startups and investing:

    • Yahoo IPO, Apr 1996. I was ready to put all my money into this. Granted, I was 16, so not a lot of money, maybe ~7K. I had been on the Internet pre-Web and really thought they were onto something. I got talked out of it and didn't do it. Of course, I could have been wrong and lost it at all too!

    • Posterous, 2001-2003.  I had a thesis (which still seems true) that email is perhaps the easiest path to virality and mainstream adoption of Web services. I had three different projects around that time where you could send an email to an address, and then the service would auto-create an account and auto-publish content. I wasn't thinking big enough though (mine were too nichey) and I didn't have enough staying power. I did ride the same email thesis through my last successful company, but it had very little to do with publishing content. 

    • Bitcoin, 2010. I was following this closely and ready to pull the trigger here, but just didn't because I thought it would take a lot of time and I'm so busy with DuckDuckGo and other things. I didn't think hard enough about it to realize I should have just bought coins instead of doing calculations around mining for them.

    • Angel Investing, ongoing. As like probably most investors, I've already passed on several things that are doing awesome. Now they stare me down every day! 

    I can't say I have any regrets though, and that's my central point. I like to think about startups as a career path. There are many apt analogies here, but along such a path there will be bumps, ups and downs, many at-bats with swings-and-misses. That's just the nature of the game.

    If you don't have your fair share of failures after a while, then you're probably not trying hard enough, or at least not exposing yourself to enough opportunities. Nobody's perfect so to have captured opportunities you need missed ones too.

    Open Angel Forum Philly Recap

     
    905870483.jpgLast week was the first Open Angel Forum Philly, organized by myself and Antonio Tedesco

    We selected six companies to give five min demos (followed by five min of q/a). Antonio has a short write-up of each company on his blog, and here is even a shorter summary:

    1. Fancy Hands (NYC) - personal assistants for everyone.
    2. RezScore (Philly) - resume analytics.
    3. Row27 (Minneapolis) - official mobile apps for sports teams.
    4. SpeakerWiki (Austin) - marketplace for speakers.
    5. Sqoot (Chicago) - adsense for deals.
    6. Contently (Philly/NYC) - marketplace for high quality content.
    If anyone wants an intro for any of these companies, please let me know. They all did a great job presenting and I hope they all get funded.

    We chose these six out of about 80 applications. Of those 80, we did Skype demos with about 25. Obviously, we had to pass on some great companies. 

    To get a view into our process, here are some groups of startups we passed on:
    • Hadn't launched.
    • No engaged uses after launch. 
    • Too high valuation. 
    • No software component.
    • Too far along in fundraising process.
    • Non-US.
    We also had a great selection of angel investors in the room. In fact, the most surprising thing to me was that everyone (except one out-of-towner) showed up!

    Antonio and I debriefed on Sat, and beyond some little things like having less tables next time, we aren't planning on changing too much next time around.  We hope to hold the next one at the end of the summer, probably mid-September.

    If you have any questions, feel free to ask in the comments, and I'll do my best to answer.

    The acqui-tail

     
    Here's what I'm seeing (anecdotally): more Internet startups getting started and seed funded, but series A funding not increasing at the same pace (or at all). This led me to conclude there is an increasing risk for these startups to find follow-on financing.

    But does that also mean all the startups and angels are largely going to end up with nothing? Not necessarily.

    Dave McClure et al. seem to be betting on the rise of the small(ish) acquisitions that deliver fine exits to the entrepreneurs and angels. I'm not saying that is the only way to get liquidity, but it is the one I want to focus on in this post.

    For this investment thesis to work, it seems there has to end up being a long tail of Internet startup acquirers. That is, the tech giants (Google, Microsoft, etc.) aren't going to acquire enough companies to make the numbers work. The concept of acquiring Internet startups must extend to M&A departments outside the tech sector.

    One argument for why that might happen goes as follows. These large companies are spending more and more on digital stuff and so as it becomes more of what they do day to day, they're going to want to get into it more. One way to do that is acquisitions. And as one company in a given industry becomes good at Internet startup acquisitions, it then becomes a competitive advantage thing.

    It would of course be great for Internet startups. The real money in acquisitions is in strategic buyers, but those buyers have to actually think you are strategic :).

    Personally, I think it will happen. Maybe people have data that it is already starting to happen, but I haven't seen it yet. I was going to crunch some crunchbase data, but I'm a bit swamped. I might do it soon though if no one points out any existing data trends.

    Philly Open Angel Forum is now accepting applications

     
    app-65bfdbf045136231c23bb5895b177d44.jpgI'm proud to announce that Open Angel Forum (OAF) is coming to Philly on March 16 (in about two months). We're now accepting applications for startups looking to raise angel rounds in that time-frame. Here's a short URL to share: http://ye.gg/oaf. The applications are powered by WizeHive, a local Philly startup.

    For the unaware, OAF is a group started by Jason Calacanis to serve as an alternative to the traditional angel pitch events that either cost startups money or take up too much of their time because of the slow group processes often involved to approve investments. Here's the actual mission statement: 

    The Open Angel Forum (OAF) is dedicated to providing entrepreneurs with access to the angel investor community based solely on merit (and without fees). Additionally, we strive to build collaboration between angel investors and to inspire high-net worth individuals to become angels.

    Morgan Lewis (a law firm that has a great local startup practice) has been gracious enough to host to event for free. Philly's startup scene is heating up, but we've had great angel investors for a while. We should have 20-30 active, independent Internet/software startup angels in the room.

    You do not need to be from or associated with Philly to apply, though I do hope we get some good applications from the area. As you might have guessed from the header of my blog, one of my goals is to help the startup scene flourish here.

    If you're a local angel and I haven't talked to you yet about it, please let me know.

    Update: deadline for applications is midnight (EST), 2/18.

    Update 2: you do not need to be associated with Philly to apply. In fact, we're looking for great startups from all over, especially from under-represented places like MD, NC, VA, etc.

    Update 3: check out the list of angels planning on attending.