Changing the game

 
I watched Moneyball last night and saw a lot of parallels to startup land, but tying them all together was the notion of competing effectively by changing the game. In the (true) story the Oakland A's competed against big money teams by leveraging undervalued players to achieve real world gains (focusing on runs instead of wins, though which of course correlate with wins).

The parallel is small startups competing with well-capitalized companies, especially ones with entrenched business and culture. The notion of where to find undervalued assets is where it gets interesting to me.

For example, one tactic is to look at customer acquisition channels too small for your competitors to care about. I did reddit ads when they first came out and since there was no one there you could get a huge ROI. 

The saturation point was so small that for any major competitor it is a complete waste of time (now that Reddit is bigger, that may have changed). Nevertheless, you as a small startup can capture that ROI to get a beachhead. I put startup micro-opportunities in the same category. 

However, neither of these tactics really change the game. They just get you into it.

The canonical way to change the game is famously outlined in The Innovators Dilemma where you focus on the future disruptive product line that the big business cannot focus on because it is so disruptive. Amazon Web Services is a great example of this strategy in the present.

Another way is to treat the bigger business(es) as commodities and layer on something valuable on-top. This is kind of like commoditizing the complement but you're treating your competitors as the complement. 

Like the disruptive innovation, this strategy can make you seem like a toy at first, but if you end up closer to the customer you can capture real value. This is potentially risky if there is only one major competitor (which makes it hard to commoditize!), but often there is more than one place to get the same thing. And you could eventually get big enough to replicate the underlying asset(s) yourself. I put DuckDuckGo in this category.

A third way is to reframe the same problem by changing the way the customer interacts with the product, while keeping the same end goal/result. In Internet startup world this is often re-thinking the UI/UX completely. Mint was in this category.

You could also change the metrics that matter (akin runs vs wins). Badoo is doing this in the dating space by making base interactions free and focusing on meeting new people as opposed to strictly dating.

Here's one more game-changing strategy that comes to mind: shrinking the market. Craigslist is a famous example. Take a huge market and then just totally gut it, but find a profitable businesses in there for you (in this case, jobs).

Some of these strategies can overlap, and I'm sure there are others as well. If you think of any more, please let me know.

The other thing that really popped out at me in the movie was Billy Beane not watching games. It reminded me of vanity metrics. Not only did he get better metrics but he didn't waste time watching them.

It's all related. If you're a startup competing against huge companies, by definition you need leverage on something to compete effectively. Wasting time playing the same game is well, wasting time.

Office hours instead of coffee

 
Between two kids under three and running DuckDuckGo I have a very tight schedule. I try really hard to maximize my productivity through a variety of efforts like online services (just added RescueTime to the mix) and attempting to maintain a makers schedule.

The problem is requests to meet for coffee, usually by local entrepreneurs. It's a problem because I do generally want to meet with these people, but I just can't make it work logistically. Going somewhere to meet for coffee usually literally takes about three-five times as much time as the actual "content time" of the meeting itself. It's highly inefficient.

For a while, I had people come to me (at my house at the time). But that was relatively awkward for a number of reasons (kids around, forcing people to drive out here, a bit of privacy invasion, meetings would linger).

Now I've hit upon something that is working well, which is really an adaptation of what Paul Graham outlined in the makers schedule essay: batching these meetings via office hours.

I've been using Ohours to manage it (mine is at http://ohours.org/yegg). I block off a bit of time a week (this week it's this morning) and open four blocks of twenty min. It's pretty much first come first served in that I haven't rejected anyone yet, but I reserve the right to do so if it feels completely off-topic (non-startup related).

The twenty minutes was a hunch from all those previous coffee meetings but turns out to be a great time length. At twenty minutes you have to get to the point. I don't like small talk as it is so I find this works well, and after fourteen sessions it has almost always started to linger by the end. If we need/want more time, we can always schedule an off-office-hours block thereafter.

Apply to Open Angel Forum Philly III

 
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The next Open Angel Forum in Philadelphia will be the evening of March 22 at Morgan Lewis. If you are involved in a startup that is looking for seed funding, please apply (there is no charge to apply or attend if selected): http://ye.gg/oaf

For anyone not familiar with Open Angel Forum, the idea is to get the best regional angels in a room and put some great startups in front of them. Antonio Tedesco and I started this Philly (loosely defined) chapter, and this will be our third event.

We expect a lot of the same investors to show again. If you are an angel investor in the mid-atlantic region and want to come, please let us know. We're also looking for sponsors.

My investment decision starts at your first email

 
I few weeks ago someone asked me how early does a decision start to form about whether I would make an angel investment or not. Thinking back and looking at prior nos and yeses I have to say a lot happens when reading that very first email.

Of course there are a ton of nos and hardly any yeses, so it is a different kind of decision than many. Nevertheless, at least for me, it isn't just that I'm looking for ways to say no. If that were the case you should shoot for being as short and vague as possible to get the next meeting.

I keep forgetting to use your app

 
I've heard a lot in the past few years about how online we're competing for attention and that people will only use x sites regularly. I'm coming to believe that view is slightly wrong. 

We're not competing for attention but for memory. People do and will use many sites, but they just forget to do so on a regular basis. 

I hear that all the time with DuckDuckGo. It's either part of your routine or it isn't. That's why I think the check-in effect is so compelling.

There are a couple others I've been thinking about as well to overcome this forgetfulness issue. You can think of them as addressing the problem by combatting the out-of-site, out-of-mind mentality.

First, there is presence -- simply being seen on a regular basis. This is pretty straightforward. Many services achieve it with an email or push notification or update. Others (like us) try to get you to set us as part of your browsing experience, e.g. via the search bar or an add-on.

If you're seen at just the right time and with the right periodicity you can be a site users visit without being one of those main x sites. I put BillGuard in this category. They send me an email monthly and I pay attention to it and almost always click through.

Second, and more subtly there is a being a starting point. It used to be people were vying to be your start page or browser. And people of course still do that and it is still valuable. However, the start page seems to have fragmented in the past few years. With mobile, you can have many starting places because you have many apps on your home screens. And the browsers have introduced more features (including native start pages) that make it easier to view a multitude of sites at once in a similar fashion.

I think the key to getting on one of these screens or bookmarks is to have people think of you as a starting point for something. This concept overlaps but is independent from the check-in effect. For example, you may or may not ever want to check-in to a photo editing app, but when you want to photo-edit you can think of that app as a starting point for that activity. It's then the startup's job to meld that association.

With social apps there is a sub-concept related to audience. That is, a social app can be a starting point if they are the gateway to a unique audience. I now use Twitter, Facebook, Foursquare, Posterous and Path all regularly. I do not syndicate everything across them (and actually not much of anything) because they each have different audiences and therefore I find myself starting a lot at each of them.

Path is an especially interesting case since they seem to be trying (via their UI) to be the new mobile social start page. The idea is you have your closest friends there and share everything with them, and then you can broadcast some of that stuff to Twitter, Facebook or Foursquare when you want to. This setup doesn't really work for me though because the audiences are so different. 

The check-in effect

 
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A lot of the biggest Web successes in the past few years have been services that have achieved some sort of "check-in effect." By that I mean their users are actively checking in to their services for updates. Check the latest deal. Check my activity stream. Check on my farm. Check if there are more updates or comments.

This seems even more the case for mobile successes, where more traditional traction verticals (e.g. email, adwords) are less useful. The successful apps (more in the non-game space) make the home screens often because people want to check them repeatedly and often.

A lot of services could be recast slightly with the check-in effect in mind. For example, taking data sources and chopping them up into streams and push updates in some useful fashion, or highlighting trending topics. I've seen this most noticeably in LinkedIn's redone app.

DuckDuckGo used to run out of my basement

 
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For the first two years or so, I ran DuckDuckGo out of my basement. Then when people really started using it I set up EC2 for fail-over, and now EC2 is our primary host. We still use these basement servers for a variety of things, however.

Before DuckDuckGo, I operated in a pre-cloud world and had been running my own servers for a number of years. My last company co-located (stored our servers in a data center), which had worked well except for when things went wrong and a reboot didn't solve it. Then I'd have to (usually at inopportune times) drive over to the data center, be escorted in, mess with things, and be charged a lot for doing so.

The main problem with self-hosting (vs co-lo) in my mind had always been crappy Internet. Then in 2006 I moved to our house in a town that approved FIOS a few months later. I had been watching it progress, and we were literally the first person in the area to install it.

I was hopeful and it turned out correct that the crappy Internet problem had been solved. In five years, it has never been fully out except for the time our service got suspended for lack of payment (forgot to update my expired card).  Other than that, there is just the usual blip always coincidental with some internal Internet routing thing. In fact, since I have complete network control, the "co-lo" doesn't reboot routers for scheduled maintenance either. The latency is also pretty good.

Note that I'm not advising any of this -- simply telling my story. So why did I do this? Really it was the path of least resistance given my history and experience. I was used to setting up and maintaining servers, and had some laying around. This setup seemed great at the time -- I'd get the benefits of co-location (good Internet) but could mess with things at will. (The other co-lo benefit is power -- I have that covered as well.)

I still like the idea of having a server for non-production use, e.g. this Web site. There is something nice about having it close by. Perhaps it is a false sense, but I feel that the setup is more reliable than any cloud provider. And I get to feel a bit more full stack.

But all that pretty much stops at one server for me. Anything beyond that and it quickly becomes a PITA. Here's a pic from when we bought the rack off of Craigslist:

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One million true fans

 
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A few years ago Kevin Kelly wrote a post called 1,000 true fans, in which he argued an artist "needs to acquire only 1,000 True Fans to make a living," and using the power of the Internet it is possible to do so independently.

In the last few years since that post we've seen an explosion in the use Web services and apps by everyday people -- with arguably Facebook leading the way. Chris Dixon just called where we are today an internet of people.

We're at a point now where I see the 1,000 true fan concept regularly applying to startups, albeit a few orders of magnitude higher (depending on whether it is consumer or business).  Now it is relatively common for a startup to get 1,000,000 true fans and be both nicely profitable and relatively low profile.

A couple of days ago @startupdigest tweeted a link to a Business Insider article on the story behind Zappos where the founder told this related anecdote:

We would have that conversation over and over again about, alright, no one is going to buy shoes without trying them on. I would say, "No, last year 5% of shoes sold in the U.S. were sold through mail order catalogues," and they'd say, "Yeah but nobody is going to buy shoes without trying them on." And it was like, did I just say that out loud or inside my head, but let me repeat it, "last year, 1 out of every 20 pairs of shoes sold was sold through a mail order catalog." "That may or may not be, but no one is going to buy shoes."

I've had a similar conversation a half-dozen times in the past year. Just because the majority, even the vast majority, doesn't want to do something, doesn't mean there isn't a sizable and passionate minority who does want to do it. And because we are now an Internet of people actually using stuff, that passionate minority is a) increasingly reachable and b) willing to spread services through their online communities. 


What's your startup's reserve price?

 
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Here's some acquisition and financing advice: know your reserve price. That's the minimum price (easiest to think about cash in your bank account at close after taxes) that you'd be willing to receive in exchange for your company. Corollary: if it isn't cash, then it needs to be heavily discounted--to zero in many cases.

It's a complicated question, which is why I strongly encourage you to think about it ahead of time, and ideally talk it through with some people who've been through acquisitions and are "richer" than you. In the acquire-hire age, your reserve price can be tested a lot and quickly, especially at the early stages. If you are caught off guard, you can get sucked in quickly to something you may regret later.

Additionally, I think you should know your reserve price before seeking investment of any kind. Investors are generally looking for 10x+ returns. Quite frankly, if you have a valuation/reserve-price combination that doesn't yield such, you shouldn't be taking investment.

And there's nothing wrong with that! In fact, I've argued that no or minimal investment may maximize your financial outcome in some cases, and is at least worth considering.
 
Talking about reserve prices seems to get into fuzzy math really quickly. Would I take $2M but not $1M or $15M and not $10M? But you should really take it seriously because these differences do matter, especially at the lower end of the scale.

Yes, everything feels different when you have an offer in front of you. And that's the point of thinking about it ahead of time. It's hard when you have no real savings in your bank account to turn down $1M. But that can be the right decision, especially if you have any kind of traction.

API Half-lives

 
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At DuckDuckGo, we use a lot of external APIs and services. Sure, we use more than most, but the trend is clear: startups are building more and more services and other companies are relying on them more and more.

I wholeheartedly agree that it's annoying that these APIs aren't as stable as things that came before, but the bigger problem from my perspective is that their half-lives are tiny. Already we've done several integrations where subsequently the company has either gone out of business, "pivoted" and ditched or abandoned their API in the process, or got acquired and the new company shut down the API.

And its not just startups. I've lost count on how many services Google has sun-setted this year -- not just ones they acquired, but also their own.

Don't get me wrong, I don't fault the individual decision makers. I don't have full background information, and for all I know I'd make the same decisions if I did. But what I do know is that my process for looking at APIs and online services is changing.

At my first company I got asked this question a bunch: how do we know you're going to be around in five years? (We weren't.) 

Now five years seems laughable! Almost all entrepreneurs I meet don't think they're going to be doing their startup in five years. Side note: it's a good negative investment filter.

I don't really have good answers yet for what to do about it or how to better evaluate a particular case. I'm annoyed at myself for doing this, but I find myself gravitating to startups that have taken in a lot of funding. I love working with startups because they are hungrier and more flexible, and so this type of startup seems like a sweet spot. They have resources to spare, both to help you out and stay in business.

Some other things I've found myself thinking about in particular cases wrt to this question about API half-lives:
  • How active is their API discussion forum?
  • How responsive are they to API bugs/issues?
  • How core is the API to their business?
  • How long have they been around already?
  • What is their runway?
  • Do they seem like they're passionate about what they're doing?
  • Are they likely acqui-hire targets?
Another approach is to apply Chaos Monkey philosophy and expect anything to die at any time. We pretty much do that. However, we still need to place bets. With so many startups, there are often several choices in any given category. 

Update: good comments on HN, especially this one.